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31
ANNUAL REPORT 2011
Contrariwise, exports are expected to continue
growing at a rate close to 4%, remaining the only
positive component of aggregate demand and
the main driving force of the economy.
Inflation will continue at high levels (3.2%) and the
unemployment rate should rise to about 13.5%.
Aswell indicatedbytheBankofPortugal, intensified
efforts in 2012 to correct macroeconomic
imbalances cannot be disassociated from the
application of long prescribed structural reforms,
a key condition for building an economic paradigm
that promotes sustainable growth in the middle
and long terms. This is the challenge facing the
Portuguese economy.
Situation in Spain
Figures recently published by the OECD suggest
a slight drop in GDP in the last quarter of 2011
(making for a 0.7% annual growth rate) due to
slowing international trade and the euro-zone
debt crisis’s impact on confidence and internal
financing conditions.
The public deficit stood at 8% of GDP, two
percentage points above the set target.
Despite the downturn, the government has kept
for 2012 the public deficit goal of 4.4% of GDP,
adopting additional restrictive measures for
taxes on individual income and assets, as well as
holding back new civil service admissions.
Amid a very unfavourable internal and external
macroeconomic situation, modest growth of
the economy is estimated (0.2%) due to budget
consolidation measures on internal demand
and lower 3.5% export growth (9.5% in 2011),
reflecting the cooling economies of the main
trading partners (France, Germany, Italy and
Portugal).
The unemployment rate should continue rising
to about 23% (21.1% in 2011).
Situation in Angola
In 2009 the Angolan state signed with
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a
27-month Stand-By Agreement (SBA)
envisaging financing of about USD 1,4
billion, of which USD 1,2 billion have already
been disbursed, along with an ambitious
programme of economic reforms.
Following the latest assessment of the SBA
carried out in Luanda, the IMF held that the
Angolan economy continued to recover from
the 2009 budget and balance of payments
crisis. GDP was estimated to have risen by